Low-Hire, Low-Fire Job Market: How to Get a Raise When Nobody’s Quitting

The job market in late 2026 is strange. Layoffs are near historic lows, yet hiring is barely moving. Economists call it a “low-hire, low-fire” market, and if you’re hoping for a bigger paycheck, it changes the playbook. Job-hopping, the go-to move for big raises in 2021 and 2022, is harder right now. That doesn’t mean you’re stuck. It means you need to get your raise in a different way.

What the latest numbers say

Here’s where things stand, based on the most recent public data:

• Hiring is slow. U.S. employers added just 29,000 jobs in September, far below the roughly 90,000 forecasters expected, and July and August were revised down by a combined 60,000 jobs, SHRM reported.
• Layoffs are scarce. Weekly jobless claims fell to 194,000 for the week ended October 17, close to the lowest level since the late 1960s, according to CNBC.
• Few people are quitting. The August hires rate was 3.3% and the quits rate was 1.9%, numbers that Indeed Hiring Lab says don’t point to much movement any time soon.
• Unemployment is still low. The rate edged up to 4.2%, but mostly because more people came back into the workforce looking for jobs, not because more workers were let go.
• Growth is modest but broader. Payroll growth averaged 68,000 jobs a month through September 2026, up from about 10,000 a month in 2025, and gains spread to 10 of 13 industries, the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta found.

Put simply: if you have a job, you’re fairly safe. But employers aren’t competing as hard for new people, which takes away some of your leverage to jump ship for a big bump.

Why this matters for your paycheck

When quits are high, employers raise pay to keep people from leaving. When quits are low, as they are now, companies feel less pressure. Many will lean on modest across-the-board budgets and assume most employees will stay put. That’s exactly why the people who get above-average raises in a market like this are the ones who ask, prepare, and make their value impossible to ignore.

The good news is that your employer also doesn’t want to lose you. Replacing a worker is slow and expensive when hiring pipelines are thin, and a company that’s holding onto its staff has every reason to keep its best people happy. That’s your opening.

Six ways to get a raise when nobody’s moving

1. Know your market rate before you talk

Your strongest argument is a number backed by data. Look up what your role pays in your area using free government tools; our guide on how to benchmark your salary with free government data walks you through it. Pay transparency laws in a growing list of states also mean job posts now show salary ranges, which gives you real comparisons from employers near you.

2. Time your ask around budget season

Many companies set next year’s raise budgets in the fall. If you wait until your annual review in February, the money may already be spoken for. Ask for a short meeting with your manager in the next few weeks, before budgets lock, and say plainly that you’d like to talk about your pay for next year.

3. Turn your review into evidence

Write down what you’ve delivered this year in numbers: money saved, revenue brought in, projects finished early, problems you fixed, people you trained. If your company uses self-reviews, this is the place to put it. Our step-by-step piece on how to write a self-review that helps you get a raise shows how to frame it so your manager can copy it straight into their pitch to leadership.

4. Go after a promotion, not just a raise

In a tight budget year, a standard raise may be capped at 3% or so. A promotion usually comes from a different pot of money and can mean a 10% to 15% jump. If you’re already doing work above your title, ask what it would take to make it official, and get the answer in writing. See how to ask for a promotion for a plan you can start this week.

5. Keep a quiet job search going

Fewer people are switching jobs, but postings haven’t disappeared. Indeed’s job postings index was nearly 4% above its pre-pandemic level in mid-October, and 68% of occupational sectors had more postings than a year earlier, with engineering, health care and therapy roles especially strong. An outside offer is still the single most powerful raise tool there is. Even one interview tells you what you’re worth. If an offer turns into a counteroffer from your current boss, read our take on whether you should accept a counteroffer before you decide.

6. Negotiate the whole package

If your manager says the salary budget is tapped out, don’t stop there. Ask about a sign-on or retention bonus, an extra week of paid time off, remote days, a training budget, a certification your company pays for, or a guaranteed pay review in six months. These cost the company less up front and still put real value in your pocket.

What not to do right now

Don’t quit without a new job lined up. With hiring this slow, job searches are taking longer, and a gap on your resume can cost you leverage at the offer stage. Don’t bluff about an outside offer you don’t have, either; in a market where employers know few people are leaving, that bluff is easier to call. And don’t stay silent. The biggest mistake in a quiet market is assuming nobody’s getting raises, so you shouldn’t bother asking. Plenty of people will get them. Make sure you’re one of them.

The bottom line

The low-hire, low-fire market rewards workers who stay put and push smart. Your job is relatively secure, and your employer has reasons to keep you. Use that. Come to the conversation with market data and proof of your results, ask before budgets are set, and be ready to talk about a promotion or a better package if the base raise falls short. The October jobs report comes out November 6, so keep an eye on whether hiring finally picks up. If it does, your leverage only grows from here.