2026 23 Oct

If you are planning to ask for a raise this year, it helps to know what employers are actually budgeting. Two public data points set the floor for most conversations in late 2026: wages are still rising nationwide, but raise pools are tighter than they were a few years ago. That does not mean you should stay quiet. It means you should walk in with numbers, timing, and a clear ask.

What the latest wage data says

According to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics Employment Cost Index for June 2026, wages and salaries for civilian workers rose 3.2 percent over the 12 months ending in June 2026. For private-industry workers, wages and salaries rose 3.1 percent over the same period. Quarter to quarter, wages were still moving: both civilian and private-industry wages rose 0.9 percent in the second quarter of 2026 (seasonally adjusted).

One catch matters for your negotiation. BLS also reports that inflation-adjusted private-industry wages fell 0.4 percent over the year. In plain English: many paychecks grew on paper, but buying power did not keep up for the average private-sector worker. If your last raise was under about 3 percent, you may have lost ground in real terms even if your title stayed the same.

What employers budgeted for raises

Company raise budgets are a separate number from the ECI. WorldatWork’s 2026–2027 Salary Budget Survey found that U.S. employers’ actual average total salary increase budget for 2026 was 3.6 percent, and the projected average for 2027 is also 3.6 percent. Other major surveys cluster in a similar band (roughly 3.3 to 3.7 percent) for 2026 actuals and 2027 projections.

That 3.6 percent figure is an average budget across a whole company, not a promise to every employee. High performers, people who took on bigger scopes, and hard-to-replace roles often get more. People with thin documentation of results often get the minimum, or nothing beyond a cost-of-living gesture.

Set a realistic target before you talk

  • Below market or overdue: Aim for more than the company average. A well-supported ask in the 5–10 percent range is common when you can show you are underpaid versus peers or have delivered outsized results.
  • Solid performer, roughly at market: Anchor near the budget (about 3.5–4.5 percent) and bring proof you belong in the top half of the pool.
  • Stretch ask: If you want a promotion-level jump, treat it as a role change conversation, not only a merit bump. Promotions are often funded separately from the merit pool.

Write down three numbers before the meeting: your current pay, the raise percent you want, and the lowest outcome you will accept without starting a job search. Knowing your bottom line keeps you from freezing when a manager counters. We covered that mindset years ago in Negotiating for a pay rise — know your bottom line.

Build a one-page case, not a speech

Managers approve raises when the story is easy to forward to HR or finance. Keep a single page with:

  1. Two or three measurable wins from the last 6–12 months (revenue, cost saved, tickets closed, uptime, customers retained, projects shipped).
  2. Any scope that grew without a title change (people you now support, systems you own, on-call load).
  3. A market check from two sources: an internal band if you have it, plus a public range from a reputable salary tool for your title and city.
  4. The specific ask: percent and new salary, effective date if you have a preference.

Skip soft openers like “I feel I deserve more.” Lead with outcomes. If you need a refresh on timing, see Choosing your moment when asking for a pay raise and How often can you ask for a pay rise.

How to open the conversation

Ask for a dedicated meeting. Do not sandwich the raise into a standup or a Slack thread. A simple opener works:

“I would like 30 minutes to review my impact this year and discuss adjusting my compensation. I will send a short summary beforehand so we can use the time well.”

In the meeting, state the ask early, then walk through the one-pager. If your manager says the budget is locked, ask two follow-ups: (1) what would need to be true for a mid-cycle adjustment, and (2) whether a title change, bonus, equity, or remote/flexibility trade is available this quarter. Get a date for the next review in writing.

If the answer is no

A no is information. Clarify whether it is “not this cycle” or “not at this level.” Ask what specific results would justify the number you named. Then decide whether to stay and execute that plan, or quietly test the market. Interviewing while employed is normal; just keep it professional and off company devices.

For a longer primer on working up the nerve to ask, our older guide Think it’s time? Advice about asking for that raise still holds on preparation and confidence.

Quick checklist

  • Compare your last raise to the ~3.1–3.2% wage trend and the ~3.6% employer budget.
  • Document wins with numbers.
  • Pick a target percent and a walk-away floor.
  • Book a real meeting; send the one-pager ahead.
  • Leave with a decision or a dated next step.

Raises in 2026 go to people who make approval easy. Do the homework, ask clearly, and treat the conversation like a business case — because that is exactly how your manager has to sell it upstairs.

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