Real Earnings Fell 0.7% Over the Past Year: September 2026 Data Explained
- Real average hourly earnings fell 0.5% from August to September 2026, as hourly pay rose 0.1% and consumer prices rose 0.6%.
- Over the year to September 2026, real average hourly earnings fell 0.7%.
- A slightly longer workweek kept real weekly earnings down only 0.1% over the year.
“Real” earnings are pay adjusted for inflation. They answer the question most workers actually care about: is my paycheck buying more or less than it used to?
All employees
According to BLS Real Earnings, September 2026, real average hourly earnings for all employees decreased 0.5% from August to September, seasonally adjusted. That came from a 0.1% increase in average hourly earnings combined with a 0.6% increase in the Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U). Real weekly earnings also fell 0.5%, with no change in the average workweek.
From September 2025 to September 2026, real average hourly earnings fell 0.7%. Combined with a 0.6% increase in the average workweek, real average weekly earnings fell 0.1%.
Production and nonsupervisory employees
For production and nonsupervisory workers, real average hourly earnings fell 0.6% in the month, as hourly pay rose 0.2% and the CPI for Urban Wage Earners and Clerical Workers (CPI-W) rose 0.7%. Over the year, real hourly earnings for this group fell 0.6%, and real weekly earnings fell 0.3%.
How BLS calculates it
Real earnings take average hourly and weekly earnings from the monthly payroll survey and adjust them for inflation. For all employees, BLS uses the CPI-U; for production and nonsupervisory employees, it uses the CPI-W, which tracks prices paid by wage earners and clerical workers. The tables express earnings in constant 1982–1984 dollars, so the level isn’t your paycheck, but the percentage changes show how buying power moved.
What it means for you
- If your raise this year was about the same as the average, your buying power likely fell.
- Working more hours offset some of the loss for many workers, but that isn’t a raise.
- Use the gap between price growth and pay growth as a data point in your next review.
- The October 2026 Real Earnings release is scheduled for Tuesday, November 10, 2026, at 8:30 a.m. ET.
Published October 27, 2026. Sources are linked in the text.
Header image: original graphic by JobPayRaise.com.
Comments (1)
A second survey points the same way: median weekly earnings of full-time workers were $1,232 in the third quarter of 2026, up 1.5% from a year earlier, while the CPI-U rose 3.5% over the same period. Source: BLS Usual Weekly Earnings, third quarter 2026.