The holiday season is coming, and with it the yearly wave of seasonal job postings. This year that wave looks steady but smaller and pickier than it used to be. If you want extra cash before the new year, or a way back into a company that’s tough to get into, here’s what the 2026 numbers show, where the jobs actually are, and how to turn a temporary gig into something that pays more after January.
What the 2026 forecasts say
The two big forecasts measure slightly different things, but they tell the same story: retail hiring will be roughly flat this year.
- National Retail Federation (NRF): In its October 15 holiday forecast, NRF expects retailers to hire 325,000 to 375,000 seasonal workers for November and December, about the same as last year’s estimated 356,000. NRF also expects holiday sales to grow 4.2% to about $1.013 trillion.
- Challenger, Gray & Christmas: The outplacement firm projects about 450,000 retail jobs added in the fourth quarter, down 2.5% from 461,500 in late 2025. Last year was already the smallest seasonal gain since 2008.
- Indeed Hiring Lab: Looking across all industries, not only retail, seasonal job postings on Indeed were up about 10% from a year earlier as of September 30, according to eMarketer’s summary of the data.
Put together, the picture is that shoppers are still spending, but stores are covering the rush with their existing staff, extra hours, automation, and on-call pools of workers before they bring on large numbers of new people. Challenger describes it as hiring that is “smaller and more surgical” than the pre-pandemic playbook.
Where the seasonal jobs are this year
The mix of jobs is changing as more holiday shopping moves online. Per the Indeed data cited by eMarketer, customer-facing retail roles fell from about 67% of seasonal postings in 2019 to just over 61% this year, while warehouse roles grew from 3.5% to nearly 9%. That matters if you’re picking where to apply:
- Warehouses, fulfillment, and delivery. These jobs usually pay more per hour than store jobs and often come with overtime in December. They’re also physically demanding, with long shifts on your feet.
- Specialty retailers with public hiring plans. Retail Dive reports that Michaels planned to hire more than 10,000 seasonal team members and said nearly half of last year’s in-store seasonal roles turned into regular positions. Bass Pro Shops and Cabela’s held a national hiring event in early October.
- Big-box stores that hire quietly. Target and Kohl’s have historically hired around 100,000 and 90,000 seasonal workers respectively, and both are recruiting now even though neither has published a 2026 target. As of Challenger’s report, Amazon and Bath & Body Works hadn’t announced numbers either, so check their career sites directly rather than waiting for headlines.
Apply early, and apply like it’s a real job
When stores hire fewer people, the early applicants with open availability get the shifts. A few things that help:
- Apply before November. Many retailers fill most of their seasonal roles by early to mid-November so new hires can be trained before Black Friday.
- Lead with availability. Nights, weekends, and the days around Thanksgiving and Christmas are what managers struggle to fill. If you can work them, say so up front.
- Treat the interview seriously. A seasonal interview may only last ten minutes, but it’s still an interview. Our guide to job interview prep that works in today’s hiring market covers how to give short, specific answers that stick.
- Ask about conversion. It’s fair to ask, “How many seasonal people stayed on after last year?” The Michaels figure shows that at some companies, the odds are real.
How to turn a seasonal job into a permanent one
A seasonal job is a six-to-eight-week tryout. Managers are deciding who to keep while the rush is still on, so the habits that matter are simple and visible:
- Show up every scheduled shift, on time. Reliability during the busiest weeks is the number one thing managers remember.
- Volunteer for the hard shifts. Picking up a Black Friday opening or a December 26 returns shift makes you stand out fast.
- Learn more than one station. Someone who can run a register, restock, and help with online order pickup is far easier to keep than someone who can only do one thing.
- Tell your manager you want to stay. Do it in early December, not on your last day. Ask what it would take and when they decide.
- Keep a short list of wins. Note things like extra shifts covered, positive customer comments, or a sales goal you hit. You’ll use it later.
Use the season to set up your next raise
Even if you already have a full-time job and you’re working a seasonal role on the side, the holidays line up with a busy stretch for pay decisions. Most employers set next year’s raise budgets in the fall, and the big surveys point to average raises of about 3.5% for 2027. If you’re converting from seasonal to permanent, that’s your moment to negotiate: you’ve proven you can do the work, and the company now knows what it would cost to replace you right after the holidays.
Bring your list of wins, know the going hourly rate for the role in your area (job postings on Indeed or the company’s own career site are a good quick check), and ask for a specific number. If the starting rate is fixed, ask when your first review is and what you’d need to do to earn an increase then. For the full script, see how to ask for a raise in 2026.
Watch out for the fine print
Seasonal jobs come with a few gotchas worth checking before you accept:
- Hours aren’t guaranteed. Ask how many hours a week seasonal staff typically get, especially in the first two weeks of November.
- Know the end date. Some roles run through mid-January for returns; others end on Christmas Eve.
- Check the employee discount and pay schedule. A discount can be worth a lot during the holidays, and weekly pay versus biweekly pay matters if you’re counting on the money for gifts.
- Watch your taxes. A second job can push your withholding off. Fill out the W-4 carefully so you don’t owe in April.
- Beware of fake postings. Legitimate employers never ask you to pay for training, equipment, or a background check, and they won’t hire you over text without an interview.
The bottom line
Holiday hiring in 2026 isn’t booming, but it’s not disappearing either. Expect something close to last year’s 350,000 or so retail seasonal hires, with a growing share in warehouses and fulfillment. Apply early, lead with your availability, and treat the season as an audition. The workers who get kept on, and who negotiate their rate when they’re kept, come out of the holidays with more than a few extra paychecks.
Sources: NRF holiday forecast (Oct. 15, 2026); Challenger, Gray & Christmas 2026 Holiday Hiring Outlook; Retail Dive; eMarketer, citing Indeed Hiring Lab.